It happens to all of us. We hit a bet wrong, and something crazy happens - maybe a last minute touchdown, or a buzzer beater. We just can’t catch a break, so what do we do? We immediately look at what games are left that we can put some money on to recoup our losses and end the day on a winning note.
There are multiple reasons why the idea of chasing is the absolute wrong strategy. First of all, too often, in chasing, we react with our hearts and not our minds. This is known as the Gamblers Fallacy, and it happens when we win as well! But take the time to think rationally, and realize that you may not be looking at all the relevant information vs your initial bet, where you may have had additional insight.
Another reason chasing is never a good option is that we risk increasing our deficit by making a rash decision last minute. Instead of ending the day down only $100, we can now find ourselves down $300 due to a panic bet. Never bet with the sole intention of winning back what you lost. Instead, swallow the loss for the day and don’t bet again until you are confident in your next wager.
I always try to refrain from betting on my favorite team. As a New York Giants fan, I didn’t make any money on their two Super Bowl wins against the Patriots because I already had too much invested in the contest in my heart. Plus, knowing my luck, if I had bet on the Giants, they would have failed to pull off the incredible upsets, but they probably would not have even covered the spread. It is best to refrain from backing your team because you end up betting with your heart rather than your mind. Even with the more successful franchises like the Packers or the Chiefs in the NFL or the Dodgers and Yankees in the MLB, just because they may win does not necessarily mean they will cover the spread or the run line. You can bet the Moneyline, but do you really want to bet the Packers as -345 favorites? That’s a lot of money to risk just to make a small profit.
Conversely, do you want to bet against your team? As a NY Giants fan, saying the past few seasons have been a struggle is an understatement. Still, as disappointing as my team has been, I continue to be a diehard fan and root for the Big Blue every week. Though it may be tempting to bet on them, knowing as a realist they have no shot at beating the Rams or even covering as a 10-point underdog, I refuse to wager against my team. In fact, the one time I ever did bet against them, they pulled off an upset against the Chiefs as 12-point underdogs. Sometimes even when you think it is easy money, it is the opposite.
I have a superstition of telling people what I am betting until I cash the bet slip at the end of the game. I also refrain from giving people advice on who they should bet on if they ask me. Why is this? I don’t want to be responsible for “making someone lose money” when all I did was give my opinion. When it comes to wagering on a particular game, go with your gut if you feel strongly about one side. Too often, we rely on what seems to be the popular opinion or what the talking heads on TV think is the right side of the wager. You would be surprised that these so-called experts are no better (no pun intended) at betting than you.
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